Israeli intelligence assessment: risk of war in Gaza

a special translation On Wednesday evening, Israeli intelligence released a security intelligence assessment for the new year 2019, in light of the security challenges facing Israel.

According to the assessment, a possible war on the Gaza front has become high, noting that the new chief of staff, Aviv Kochavi ordered the army to focus its readiness for the possibility of a military escalation on the Gaza front.

According to the assessment presented to the General Staff, Hamas may try to carry out a "tunnel" operation without succeeding in abducting any Israeli, leading to an escalation in the near future.

The assessment warns that all Palestinian cities are likely to witness an escalation in the field, including the West Bank, which is currently relatively calm.

Although the political leadership gives priority to the northern square because of Iran's moves and the transfer of precision rockets to Hezbollah, the chief of staff and the army leadership believe that the escalation in Gaza is closer, despite the current calm.

According to the assessment, a planned attack from Gaza through a tunnel or other will drag Israel into a tough battle in Gaza, or the Islamic Jihad may resort to a possible escalation, especially since it recently proved its independence from Hamas and carried out several shootings.

On the Syrian front and the Iranian presence, the security assessment warned the intelligence of the escalation of Israeli attacks in Syria against Iran's goals, which are constantly changing their military tactics, especially in the event of Iran's response to the ongoing attacks, as recently fired a missile at Hermon.

According to the assessment, the army will not hesitate to target the S-300 anti-aircraft battery, which Russia recently handed over to Syria, adding that he would not hesitate to target after becoming the executive authority of the Syrian army, which is still training to reduce the military air activities of the Israeli army.

He pointed out that Iran changed its military tactics in Syria after the recent severe strikes, reduced its forces, began operating in eastern Syria rather than near Israel's borders, and changed its use of the Damascus International Airport by transporting arms and missiles through it to the T-4 airport in the north Syria.

According to the assessment, Iran is seeking to transfer Shiite militias from Iraq to Syria if the military escalation campaign against Israel approaches, seeking to deploy missiles between the borders of Syria and Iraq.

The assessment encourages US efforts on sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear program. It is estimated that if Iran's efforts continue, within a year or two, it could have a fissile nuclear bomb. Referring also to the economic difficulties faced by the Iranian people under difficult circumstances.

On Lebanon, the evaluation pointed to the operation carried out against the tunnels, stressing that it is still continuing to identify other tunnels and work to destroy them and follow the tracks of tunnels that were destroyed in advance. Noting that Hezbollah will try in the coming confrontation to work from southern Lebanon and the borders of Syria, especially in recent weeks, the party has returned to spread in that region, prompting the Israeli intelligence to make a recommendation to lead the army to renew the operational plan of the Syrian arena.

According to the scenario of the war on different fronts, the northern front of southern Lebanon will be the main, and Gaza is a secondary arena. Syria, the newly formed front, will serve as a new challenge to the IDF's strength. 150-200,000 fighters may enter the confrontation from the Syrian front, Iraq.

On the basis of these military changes on the three fronts, the new Chief of Staff, Aviv Kochavi, decided on the work plan 2019, which included significant changes in the land and other weapons, and decided to increase the intelligence force, strengthen the weapons of the forces and improve their operational readiness, especially on the Gaza front. 15 additional battalions, and convert one additional iron dome batteries into a regular dome, in order to improve deployment if necessary, and to prepare more iron dome batteries to increase protection.

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