The road toward isolating Trump ... and beyond

US President Donald Trump faces the prospect of being sacked and tried before Congress in the coming weeks on accusations that he has pressed Ukraine to support his efforts to win a second term in the 2020 election.

The deputies listened to public statements by 12 witnesses and supported suspicions that Trump pressed Kiev to announce investigations into his political rivals, including the leading Democratic candidate for the 2020 election, Joe Biden.

The president froze nearly $ 400 million in military aid and a visit to the White House by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelinsky, in moves believed to be aimed at Lee's arm, which is locked in a dispute with Russia, to help him with the election.

The House Intelligence Committee's role in the investigation has not yet officially ended, as it is likely to await an upcoming court ruling on Monday that could give its members the power to force top Trump aides to testify.

But Democrats appear determined to vote in the House to oust him by the end of the year, which could lead to Trump's trial before the Senate in January.

Here are the process steps:

The Intelligence Committee is to report its findings to the House Judiciary Committee, whose members will discuss the evidence and likely interview witnesses.

Unlike the first fact-finding phase, Trump and his attorney can participate by giving testimonies, attending hearings, reviewing evidence and asking witnesses.

Trump said last week he might be willing to answer questions in written form.

Eventually, the Commission will vote on the official isolation material, the political counterpart of the indictment.

The definition of the US Constitution of irregularities requiring isolation is broad, including "treason and bribery or other crimes and major offenses." But these irregularities are not specific and are generally seen as involving the abuse of power and public trust.

Democrats are reportedly considering four counts: using power to pressure Ukraine to obtain domestic political support, bribery by setting a subsidy requirement for aid and arranging the summit, contempt of Congress by refusing to comply with subpoenas, and obstruction of justice.

Isolation materials approved by the Judicial Committee are then sent to the entire House of Representatives for a vote.

The MPs are discussing the charges at a stage that may take some time. In the case of the removal of President Bill Clinton in 1998, the deputies spent more than 13 hours over two days discussing the issue.

Passing the articles - or "isolating" the president - requires a slim majority in the House. Democrats have a majority in the House (233 to 197 Republicans) and the party has shown a united front, increasing the likelihood that the move will be significantly approved.

A vote in favor of Trump's removal would refer the case to the Senate, where a president will be tried for the third time in US history.

The trial will be presided over by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and the jury will be composed of the 100 senators. Members of the House of Representatives will act as prosecutors while the president's lawyers defend him.

But Trump's conviction will be tough, requiring the approval of two-thirds of the Senate, where Republicans have 53 of the 100 Senate seats.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will lead the process and can keep it brief with minimal testimonials and discussions, lasting two weeks or less.

It can also increase its duration. Clinton's trial lasted six weeks and testimonies were heard.

A complicating factor is that six Democratic presidential candidates are senators and a trial in January could disrupt their campaigns ahead of the first Iowa primary on February 3.

Regardless of what the accusations are, most analysts suggest that politics will have a major impact on the final vote.

With the November 2020 presidential and legislative elections approaching, Republican senators, in particular, will have to consider whether their voters would prefer to vote in favor of ousting or protecting the Republican president.

 

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