Israeli security experts have warned of security and political consequences of unilaterally implementing the annexation of areas in the West Bank to Israel. And US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in Israel yesterday, and the annexation plan will be one of the most important issues he will discuss with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his partner, Benny Gantz, in the new government that is expected to be installed today.
A report issued by the Institute for National Security Research at the University of Tel Aviv said, "It is expected that the steps taken to annex a series of negative consequences for Israel will be followed by the following centralization: the escalation of the risks of violence, riots and terrorism in the West Bank and an escalation in exchange for Hamas in Gaza The possibility of abolishing security coordination with the Palestinian Authority in the event of annexing large areas, forcing Israel to assume responsibility for approximately 2.5 million Palestinians; investing national resources in the field of annexation will necessarily come in favor of restoring the Israeli economy (after the Corona crisis); and more generally, it will be strengthened The annexation is the "path of resistance" that Hamas calls for, in exchange for "a path." The negotiations, "called by the President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, the annexation steps would crystallize very long borders that must be defended, and exclude the possibility of future negotiations and may lead to increased international recognition of the Palestinian demands."
The report pointed out, "Another prominent danger relates to Israel´s relations with Egypt and Jordan. The Jordanian reaction to the annexation has resulted in harm to cooperation with it in guarding the longest borders of Israel, even the peace agreement, and similar potential consequences in the context of relations with Egypt."
"With the exception of the current President of the United States, who supports this move, it appears that any party in the world or in the Middle East will not recognize the area that will be annexed to Israel. On the other hand, there are parties that can recognize the rights of the Palestinians with a state in the entire West Bank."
The report, which included several issues related to national security and issued under the title "Amending the Strategic Assessment of Israel for 2020 and Recommendations for the New Government", stressed that "In these circumstances, the final recommendation of the new government is to refrain from steps to unilaterally annex in the West Bank. Israel must improve Its activity is in the following two pillars, and through the continuation of the reality of the division between the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas in the Gaza Strip:
“The political pillar, and its goal is to strengthen the Palestinian Authority as the only legitimate address for a future settlement and closer ties with it, following its responsible and successful performance in facing the Corona epidemic. In the short term, the authority should be helped to meet the economic and social challenges that have intensified in the aftermath of the Corona crisis by liberalizing tax matters, supplying Electricity and water, and expanding work in Israel for workers from the Authority. And if the Palestinian Authority sticks to its refusal to return to the negotiating table and discuss the settlement that is centered on the ´Trump Plan´ - and not as a unilateral step - the recommendation is to implement separation steps between Israel and Palestine Nyein in the West Bank. "
"The other pillar, whose center is efforts to reach a continuous ceasefire with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, is continuation and in isolation from the deal to liberate security prisoners imprisoned in Israel in exchange for the citizens´ recovery of the bodies of the two Israeli soldiers held by Hamas. And such a settlement should include a system for restricting The growing military strength of Hamas. In the event of a confrontation with Hamas, the Israeli army’s operation should focus on severely harming the movement’s military arm. ”
A strike that will harm national security
The former official in the Military Intelligence and the Israeli Ministry of Security, retired general Amos Gilad, described the annexation plan as a "strike that will seriously harm Israeli national security", and that "the main problem lies in undermining stability at the eastern border" with Jordan.
Gilad, the former head of the political-security department of the Israeli Ministry of Security, reiterated the Israeli security perspective on relations with Jordan, and wrote that "Jordan has turned into an ally of Israel, and has turned the region into a deep strategic security space, to the point (to serve as) Israeli-Iraqi borders. And this security space, unlike in the past, there is no infiltration of terrorism, nor guerrillas or saboteurs. With the exception of very few events, the eastern borders are quiet borders. An ´invisible hand´ foils armed attacks, and the greatest credit is for the efficacy of Jordanians and cooperation that constitutes a strategic asset.
Gilad added that "all of this can change when Israel implements the annexation, which is a step that Jordan sees as a violation of the peace agreement." He pointed out that if the regime is undermined in Jordan, "Ezran and Hezbollah´s appetite for a foothold there, and everyone wants a foothold there, will increase. Why should Israeli security be undermined by irrational political steps?"
He continued, "The calm in the Jordan Valley and the security that is there are based on cooperation with Jordan, as well as the comfortable security reality in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which was achieved with blood and much work."
Gilad pointed out that "we must remember that the Palestinian Authority is the result of agreements between us and the Palestine Liberation Organization, and when there is no longer the possibility, even if very little, of a process leading to a political agreement, there will be no reason for the agreements to remain and everything can explode there." The annexation is likely to lead to undermining the situation in Judea and Samaria very worrisome. The disintegration of the Palestinian Authority will prove to justify the path of Hamas and its problems, according to which the correct way to confront Israel is violence and terrorism, and proof of that will be the collapse of Abu Mazen. The security in Judea and Samaria? ".
