Palestinian and Israeli observers believe that the distance between calm in the Gaza Strip and the outbreak of a new confrontation with Israel is "very short".
Observers say that the tension on the ground between Gaza and Israel has escalated in the past few days, which threatens to erupt a new wave of escalation or a breakthrough in terms of lifting the siege imposed on the Strip.
Spark field events
On Saturday, clashes erupted between dozens of Palestinian youths and the Israeli army forces at the separation fence east of Gaza City, the most violent since the cessation of the popular marches of return two years ago.
The violent confrontations resulted in the injury of 41 Palestinians, including 10 children, one of whom is 13 years old, according to Palestinian medical sources. At the time, the Israeli army announced that one of its members was seriously wounded by shooting at him from a short distance, while no Palestinian party claimed responsibility for it.
Later, the Israeli army responded to the incident by bombing military sites belonging to the Al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), in various areas in the Gaza Strip, the most violent since the last wave of tension stopped last May.
At the start of his weekly cabinet meeting, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett threatened that Israel would "settlement" with those who attacked Israeli soldiers and citizens.
The army responded with a fairly broad offensive in Gaza, Bennett said, and I conducted an assessment last week in the Gaza Division with the defense minister and chief of staff and I can tell you that the army is prepared for any scenario.
The tension coincided with the Palestinian factions in Gaza organizing a popular festival in the return camp, east of the city, on the occasion of the 52nd anniversary of the burning of Al-Aqsa Mosque, and demanding the lifting of the siege imposed on the Strip and its reconstruction.
The accelerated events came days after Israel announced that it had reached an agreement to resume the entry of the Qatari grant into the Gaza Strip, about 3 months after it was halted during Operation “Guardian of the Walls / Sword of Jerusalem” last May.
Escalation is closer to calm
Political analyst from Gaza Husam al-Dajni says that the humanitarian reality and indicators in the Strip indicate that things may explode, even if this is not the desire of the armed Palestinian factions or the Israeli government.
He adds that the humanitarian situation in Gaza is "unbearable" and the confrontations that took place between angry Palestinian youths and the Israeli army forces are a message to Israel that reality is "threatening to explode."
He continues that the Israeli government is “reluctant” in implementing the understandings by lifting the siege on Gaza and rebuilding the Strip by linking it to a comprehensive deal that leads to a long-term truce by linking this track to an exchange deal for Israeli soldiers in Gaza that the Palestinian factions want separate from all files.
Al-Dajni points out that the difficult humanitarian situation puts pressure on the Palestinian factions to search for a way out, and they will only find a gradual peaceful popular resistance on the borders, but it will not last long to receive bullets and casualties.
The Palestinian factions demand that Israel abide by previous understandings of the truce, which include starting the implementation of infrastructure projects and allowing the entry of financial grants from Qatar for humanitarian support in Gaza and the entry of building materials to start the reconstruction process.
Continuing popular action on the Gaza border
The Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip confirmed the continuation of popular activities on the border with Israel until it “stops its hand from the Palestinian people, the West Bank and Jerusalem, and breaks the siege imposed on the Strip.”
A statement by the factions, which was read during a press conference east of Gaza yesterday, Sunday, said that the popular activities will proceed according to a plan and a vision, calling on the Palestinians to participate broadly in accordance with the activities and determinants announced by the factions and forces in a way that achieves the desired goals and ambitions.
The statement called on the international community and the mediators of the last ceasefire last May (Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations) to work to end the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and stop “depriving and blackmailing it if they want calm and stability” in the entire region.
The situation in Gaza is tragic
Mustafa Ibrahim, a political analyst from Gaza, says that the tight Israeli siege on the Strip, which is inhabited by nearly two million people, for nearly 14 years has brought it back “long years of backwardness at the industrial and commercial levels.”
He adds that the reality in Gaza is tragic, with unemployment rates exceeding 55 percent, poverty reaching 80 percent, the private sector collapsing, and health in the worst condition, pointing out that the youth and women are the ones who pay the price for the Israeli blockade.
He points out that Israel is trying to reduce the siege imposed on the Strip, the suffering of its residents, and the destruction of their lives with humanitarian aid, facilities, security arrangements, and calm in exchange for food.
He continues that, after the recent wave of tension, the residents of Gaza expected several changes to their lives, including the lifting of the siege, as they were no longer able to bear more wars against them and accept the continuation of the crime of the siege and the conditions and blackmail of the Bennett government.
The blockade is considered “immoral, illegal and inhumane, a collective punishment against two million people, and reducing it to some funds is an affront to the Palestinians and destroys their lives by closing the crossings and preventing freedom of movement, movement and travel.”
Israel has imposed a tight siege on the Gaza Strip since mid-2007, after Hamas took control of the situation by force.
In addition to the siege, Israel launched three wars on Gaza in 2008, 2012 and 2014, killing and wounding thousands, in addition to dozens of rounds of escalation, the last of which lasted 11 days, after which Egypt succeeded in reaching a ceasefire agreement.
The Egyptian role to calm the situation
Writer Talal Okal from Gaza says that Egypt plays a very important, effective and influential role in putting pressure on the Palestinian factions and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) on the one hand, and Israel on the other, noting that the two sides cannot risk angering Cairo and disrupting its role.
He adds that the calculations, despite their inconsistencies, cannot lead to the possibility that Israel will carry out another aggression on Gaza, which will result in it calculating its steps not only towards the Strip, but also towards Jerusalem and the West Bank.
Okal believes that the situation is subject to change after Bennett made his visits to Washington and met with US President Joe Biden and Cairo to meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in the coming days, and in the event that these visits did not succeed in addressing the main files that Gaza suffers from.
The head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service, Abbas Kamel, visited Israel and the West Bank last week and met officials on both sides and discussed bilateral relations, achieving peace in the region and consolidating calm in the Gaza Strip.
On May 21, Egypt sponsored a truce agreement between Israel and the armed Palestinian factions in Gaza that ended 11 days of fighting, which resulted in the death of more than 250 Palestinians and the killing of 13 Israelis, according to official Palestinian and Israeli figures.
About ten days ago, activists from Gaza fired a rocket-propelled grenade towards Israeli territory for the first time since the cessation of tension. Unusually, Israel did not respond in a move that drew strong criticism from Bennett´s government, in which he declared that Israel "will act at the appropriate time and place."
The file of the Israeli soldiers is the main obstacle
Israeli writer and political analyst Amos Harel says that one of the causes of tension and the main obstacle facing further progress is Israel´s stipulation that the reconstruction and development of the Strip depends on strengthening and resolving the issue of prisoners and missing persons.
Harel adds that progress in reconstruction projects and the return of life to normal as it was in the past will be limited as long as there is no settlement in the file of Israeli soldiers in Gaza.
