Most of the poll results, until the morning of the presidential election in the United States, indicate a clear progress by the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, at the expense of President Donald Trump, but Trump´s fortunes remain strong, especially if we remember what happened. In the 2016 election when all polls favored Hillary Clinton.
Biden has a national lead by far, and opinion polls put him ahead of him in the crucial states, most notably Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
But Biden´s progress in Pennsylvania, for example, is not big enough for Democrats to be completely confident, especially given what happened in 2016, when Donald Trump won the state, although opinion polls at the time ruled out his victory.
Biden is either narrowly ahead or close in the polls for a group of other swing states, including Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.
In the event that Trump manages to win the votes of these states, Biden will need to stick to Pennsylvania in order to secure victory, according to the US site Vox (which differs from the Fox network). Despite Biden´s progress in all polls, this is not sufficient to rule out Trump´s victory, but on condition that he wins in nearly all swing states, most importantly Pennsylvania.
The "Vox" site assumed that Biden would win the same states that Clinton won in 2016, in addition to Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as that would be sufficient for Biden to win the presidency without having to wait for the results of the vote in other important swing states such as Florida, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina ( North Carolina). So Trump badly needs to win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in order to win a second term, something most experts dismiss.
Taking into account that the vast majority of opinion polls in 2016 expected Hillary Clinton to win these three states, but in the end Trump won it, by a small margin, and that Biden is currently leading in Michigan and Wisconsin by a comfortable margin (8 percentage points according to the latest opinion polls), it seems Pennsylvania is the most difficult state to predict its outcome, and that is the bitter Trump is betting on. (Note that most polling stations indicate a very slight progress for Biden in Pennsylvania, who has 20 electoral college votes), which gives Trump a tangible chance to win. Conversely, if Biden wins Pennsylvania, he will likely win the presidency, because Trump will then need to win nearly all swing states.
Current poll results estimate ensuring that Trump gets 125 votes from the electoral college so far (out of 538), less than half the number needed to win the presidency (270 votes), and thus needs to win most swing states, especially those in which none of Candidates with a large difference (four points or less in the opinion polls, while Biden sits on the 232 electoral votes guaranteed by the electoral college, i.e. 38 votes below the required.)
According to polls, Texas, which has 38 electoral votes, is on the line and is considered the most important, as Trump leads there by only 1.1 percentage points in the state that usually elects the Republican candidate, and therefore the president cannot lose it at all, otherwise his fortunes will evaporate.
On the other hand, Florida, which has 29 electoral votes, is one of the most important swing states that Trump must win, especially if we know that the poll results speak of a great convergence in the competition with a very slight advantage for Biden.
There is also Ohio State with 16 votes, North Carolina with 15 votes, and Iowa with 6 votes, all of which witness a great convergence between Trump and Biden.
If Trump manages to win them all, that means Arizona, which has 11 votes, will be decisive in the final result.
Arizona is usually considered a republic, but today it is a swing state after the poll results showed Biden very little progress.
Thus Arizona could be a "plan B" for Biden, in the event that Biden loses the state of Pennsylvania, as winning it would give him the 270 votes needed to win the presidency, but on condition that he win Nebraska, which Trump won in 2016.
