last week, two experts from the Brookings Institution in Washington, Professor Shibley Telhami, Professor of Political and Social Sciences at the University of Maryland, and Professor Mark Lynch, Professor of Political Science at George Washington University, conducted the last , A unique survey of highly experienced scholars in the Middle East, which is the first new measure for researchers in the Middle East, drawing on resources available in this field from the Middle East Studies Association and the American Political Science Association´s Middle East and North Africa Policy Division, and The George Washington University Political Science Project in the Middle East, "where the two experts identified 1,293 researchers from these to participate in the survey.
The researchers say: “What awaits us in the Middle East and the United States? The Middle East as seen by regional scholars. "
The researchers explain, "The Middle East is never short of commentary and opinion; many high-quality polls regularly ask political scientists and foreign policy experts for their views on US policy in the region. But what do academic experts think about the Middle East?"
According to the researchers, the vast majority of these experts speak at least one of the regional languages, and they have spent a long time in the Middle East, and have devoted their careers to the careful study of the region and its policies.
"Within three days, 521 researchers agreed to participate and answered an average of 40%, roughly evenly between political and non-political scientists," the researchers say.
Telhami and Lynch says: "We asked these experts descriptive questions, not what they think should happen - or perhaps will happen - in the Middle East, as the survey requested their assessment of the region as it currently exists and may exist after a decade, and not what they prefer about Results or policies. "
According to the experts, the survey results paint an intriguing picture about the Middle East, and valuable insights that may be considered (or benefit from) President Joe Biden´s administration - which said it aims to take expert opinions seriously - because it shapes US foreign policy in the region. .
The Palestinians and Israel: the one-state reality is more like apartheid
The researchers explain: “Perhaps the most obvious result of the survey is the collective assessment of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A large majority of the surveyed experts, or 59%, describe the current reality of Israel and the Palestinians as the reality of one state that is closer to apartheid.” While another 7% see it as a “state reality” One with no equality, but not akin to apartheid. "
According to the poll: "Only 2% describe the situation as a temporary Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. 30% describe the current situation as a semi-permanent occupation by Israel."
While the Biden administration will likely seek to initiate diplomacy, the experts offer very little hope for a two-state solution.
The researchers say, "In our survey, 52% said that such an outcome is no longer possible, while 42% saw it as unlikely within the next ten years. Only 6% consider it possible within the next decade."
They conclude: “These expectations are particularly bleak because without the possibility of two separate states, separate Israel and separate Palestine, 77% of the experts surveyed expect to see the reality of one state closer to apartheid, while another 17% expect the one-state reality with increasing inequality. It is not closer to apartheid when only 1% expect to see a binational state with equal rights for all.
Iran and the Nuclear Deal
The experts surveyed believed that the US return to the Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) in its current form would reduce the likelihood that Iran would acquire a nuclear weapon during the next decade - and this is what 75% of the respondents say.
Also, 21% say that a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the Iranian nuclear deal) will not make a real difference - only 2% say that the United States´ return to the Iran nuclear deal (returning to its activation by all of the signatories to it) will bring Iran closer to owning the nuclear bomb.
The experts say, "It is perhaps not surprising that scholars overwhelmingly oppose any military action against Iran or the continuation of the" maximum pressure "policy imposed by the Trump administration.
The researchers explain: “The main split among respondents was about tactics: 67 percent said that an immediate return of the United States to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the Iran nuclear deal) before addressing other issues would better serve US interests, while 23 Per cent first negotiated a major deal, including ballistic missiles, and regional policies, in agreement with allies such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
What happened to the Arab Spring?
The researchers noted that “the experts in the poll that (for the Brookings Institution) organized disagree about the future and significance of the 2011 uprisings that rocked the Arab world (the Arab Spring), and the majority of scholars and experts believe that the uprisings are still active. And 30% expect another wave of mass protests during the decade. Next, while 46% say that uprisings are still continuing in various forms.
Only 7% believe the uprisings are over and over, while 17% believe they will not likely repeat for at least a decade.
But were the "Arab Spring uprisings" important? Telhami and Lynch say that a slim majority, 54%, believe these uprisings have had a major impact, but it is not transformative (in the sense of changing reality in a specific way). 29% thought the Arab Spring "were transformative uprisings, while 17% saw them as temporary disruptions with little to no long-term impact."
What about the United States and the Middle East?
Only 3% of scholars believe that the United States is stronger in the Middle East today than it was ten years ago, while 75% believe that the United States has become weaker in its presence in the Middle East than it was.
Remarkably, according to researchers, only 38% of experts still see the United States as the only dominant external power in the region, and it is not related to Russia, (primarily a US-Russian competition), as only 8% see the region being divided over The basis of the "bipolar" equation, as was the case during the Cold War.
A slight majority (54%) views the region as being multi-polar, meaning that it is exposed to great-power competition for influence and power.
Scholars and experts do not see an upcoming revival of US dominance in the region. Looking to the future, only 10% expect the United States to be stronger (in its presence in the region) a decade from now. This, according to the experts, does not necessarily mean a sharp decline: 48% (of the experts surveyed) expect the United States to be weaker in a decade, while 41% expect it to be roughly the same now. Interestingly, scholars do not agree on whether there has been a general decline in the importance of outside states in what is happening in the Middle East: 42% say that external forces have the same amount of influence as they did a decade ago, while 29% believe that other powers ( Like Russia) has a greater impact, while 28% say that the impact of other countries (such as Russia) is less than in the past.
